Are expiration dates on food accurate or misleading?

The distinction between “use by” and “at least shelf life”

There are two fundamental categories in expiration dates.

• 
  To be used until (use by):
  Targeted for food safety. After this date, consumption may pose health risks.
• 
  Best before (best before):
  Focused on quality. Products may still be safe, but may lose taste, smell or texture.

The distinction is clear, but in practice the difference is often misinterpreted. Consumers treat both dates as if they indicate safety, leading to waste of still usable food. For businesses, on the other hand, a risk arises when incorrect date choices are made or insufficient justification is given as to which category applies.

Risk-based determination of expiration dates

Within the European Union, it has been established that shelf life dates should be based on a
risk assessment
. This involves the following factors:

• Product properties such as pH, water activity and composition.
• Microbial risks, including growth or inactivation of pathogens.
• Process conditions and packaging selection.
• Expected distribution and storage conditions.

The EFSA decision tree supports producers in making the right choice between “use by” and “best before.” This systematic approach is necessary to justify data not only legally but also practically.

Influence of the cold chain

Shelf life is set based on assumed time-temperature profiles. In reality, there are often deviations in the cold chain, for example due to fluctuations in distribution centers, delays in transportation or inadequate temperature control in retail.

When the temperature is higher than anticipated, microbial growth can accelerate significantly. This means that the actual shelf life is shorter than the indicated date. In this case, the expiration date is actually misleading because it does not take into account real chain performance.

Innovative methods: predictive microbiology and monitoring

To increase the reliability of shelf life dates, companies are using two complementary strategies:

Predictive microbiology

With models such as
ComBase
the growth of microorganisms can be predicted under different conditions. This makes it possible to calculate shelf life dynamically and test it against realistic scenarios.

Time-temperature indicators (TTIs) and data loggers

These systems record or visualize the actual temperature progression of a product. This allows better estimation of the remaining shelf life and allows parties to make decisions based on measured conditions rather than a fixed date alone.

Shelf life data as an integral part of risk management

For supply chain managers and QHSE managers, expiration dates are not a static fact, but part of a broader system. Combining
label information, monitoring and modeling
provides greater accuracy. This shifts the question from “is the date accurate?” to “does the date match actual supply chain conditions?”.

External sources for deepening:

• • EFSA Guidance on date marking and food information (2020)